European M-Retailing revenues will have overtaken the US by the end of 2010, as part of a growth vector that will see mobile shopping accounting for $119 billion by 2015, according to a report by ABI Research
European and US revenues, however, are dwarfed by Japan's existing trade - mobile revenues were $20billion in 2009, with growth still forecast.
A significant part of the growth comes from the sub-$20 transactions, particularly around gaming and non-product transactions (p0rn? gambling? travel?), but there's still a sizeable level of transactions over mobile-optimised ecommerce platforms.
Outside of the developed countries there are regions of the world where mobile commerce is more accessible that pc-based internet shopping and so will therefore outstrip this channel.
“Mobile online shopping is reaching critical mass,” says senior analyst Mark Beccue. “In the United States, mobile online shopping rose from $396 million in 2008 to $1.2 billion in 2009. While definitions of ‘mass market adoption’ vary, a more than threefold increase in one year indicates significant consumer interest."
The question now is whether we're growing the pie or simply fighting over slices. Furthermore, if we think the debates over cannibalisation of offline revenues via eCommerce were fierce, with mobile in the equation our only option to preserve sanity will be to develop a single view of the customer across all channels... this can't come a moment too soon.