The latest retail sales figures for the three months to July have been released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) — and they offer a mixed picture for UK retailers, with online and multichannel businesses emerging on top amid broader market volatility.
Retail sales fell by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025; however, sales volumes rose 0.6% in July after a 0.3% increase in June.
“Supermarkets, sports shops and household goods stores had a strong start to the year, but spending there has fallen since March,” said James Benford, incoming director general of economic statistics at ONS. He noted, however, that this weakness “was partially offset by the strong showing from online and clothing and footwear stores.”
Online sales were particularly strong in July; sales volumes from non-store retailers, mainly online retailers, rose by 2.5%. Commenting on this, Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., said: “Retailers with a healthy online offering will certainly be thinking these figures were worth the wait.”
The ONS also revised its seasonal adjustment methodology, revealing that previous figures had overstated monthly volatility. “The new figures published today show a similar overall pattern of three-month on three-month growth, but with less volatile month-on-month changes,” Benford explained. For multichannel retailers, this recalibration offers a clearer view of consumer behaviour and sales trends.
Seasonal trends led consumer spending
Deann Evans, managing director EMEA at Shopify, highlighted consumer enthusiasm driven by seasonal trends, during a summer dominated by hot weather and major sports and musical events. “Outdoor activities remained front of mind for UK consumers,” she said, citing sharp month-on-month increases in sales of pop-up tents, footballs, and pool toys. Evans also noted a surge in ‘back to school’ purchases, with school uniform sales rising by nearly 500% in July. “Retailers must drive growth by owning the customer journey,” she added, pointing to ecommerce websites as the most effective channel for operational control.
Despite this seasonal boost, however, Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, described sales momentum as “patchy”. “Despite heatwaves and a summer of sport giving some areas of retail a welcome lift in early July, sales momentum across categories is patchy beneath the surface,” he said. Citing the fact that food price rises continue to impact on retailers, and that homeware and fashion “continue to rely heavily on promotions rather than a meaningful recovery in demand”, he nonetheless added a positive note for online retailers, pointing to selective spending in categories benefiting from innovation in technology and wellbeing — areas in which online retailers often lead.
Found also warned that the Autumn Budget — due on 26th November — could add to pressure on retailers. “Retailers are already grappling with a wave of structural cost pressures, from wages to business rates,” he said. “With the Budget falling late into this year’s golden quarter, there’s a real risk that uncertainty could choke discretionary spending just as retailers gear up for their most critical trading period.”
Cyber attacks caused volatility
Cybersecurity also emerged as a growing concern. Spencer Young, SVP EMEA at Delinea, cautioned that “volumes remain lower overall compared with earlier in the year, underscoring the mounting pressure on UK retailers…from the growing impact of cyberattacks.” Pointing at the Marks & Spencer breach, which disrupted Click & Collect services for 15 weeks, he warned that retailers need to build in reliance to cyber attacks as part of their overall strategy. “It is no longer realistic to assume that they won’t be breached,” he said.
For online and multichannel retailers, the ONS data shows room for cautious optimism. But, with consumer behaviour increasingly shaped by seasonal trends, economic uncertainty, and cybersecurity risks, the ONS data also points to the need for multichannel retailers to focus on strengthening their ecommerce platforms, owning the customer journey, and adapting quickly to shifting market dynamics.
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