In numerous shareholder letters and interviews in 2010, 2011 and again in 2019, Jeff Bezos famously said that the most important strategic question isn’t what will change, but what won’t. So, in that spirit it we shall take a look at what 2026 has in store for retail media and marketing not necessarily from a what is going to change, but from what isn’t – and more importantly how to leverage that.
One thing is clear: 2025 has been a stellar year for the growth and maturation of retail media. It has grown to be a $174.2 billion dollar global industry that will by this time next year outstrip combined investment in linear and streaming TV globally. And, while Amazon has dominated in terms of revenue from advertising, many other retailers large and small have made significant strides in leveraging this marketing channel.
However, if we use the lens of what hasn’t changed we arrive squarely at what really underpins retail media’s success: trust, advocacy and influence. That’s right, retail media is really about human nature, not just leveraging the latest technology.
According to Tom Ridges, CEO of Herdify, “If we focus on what won’t change in the next decade, one thing stands out: people will still rely on the opinions of those around them to navigate uncertainty and make decisions.
“2025 has reinforced a simple truth: people influence people,” he says. “Peer recommendations are still one of the strongest drivers of adoption, especially in tight-knit communities and local clusters. Research, including Centola’s work on “complex contagions,” shows behaviours spread fastest when several close connections send the same signal, a pattern these communities naturally create.”
Retail media works because it’s based on what people actually buy. And when you pair that with an understanding of how behaviours spread through local communities; how a recommendation in one neighbourhood can ripple into another, the opportunity becomes far bigger than a product slot on a webpage.
“Retailer data can help brands find the clusters where momentum is already building and fuel it with off-site media that is relevant and rooted in real-world demand,” says Ridges.
This can all be aided and driven by AI, but as AI accelerates, so too does the creation of synthetic content, deepfakes and misinformation. Here again, trusted human influence becomes even more valuable. “When anything can be generated, authenticity becomes a premium,” he adds.
Measurement, attribution and incrementality
Underpinning all this is that old favourite of retail media, measurement, incrementality and, in particular, attribution – which has become the watchword of the industry in the last six months.
“As standards for measurement are being formalised, brands should expect proof of incrementality,” says Ridges. “That means clear definitions of what counts as on-site versus off-site, and evidence of true “extra sales,” not just re-labelled last-click wins. In 2026, the most successful retail media strategies will combine rich retailer data, rigorous measurement and an understanding of how influence travels through communities. Brands that plan around real human networks will see adoption move faster and performance compound.”
Similarly, incrementality will continue to be a key factor in retail media processes, budgeting and progress – not least what technology is developed and deployed – going forward.
According to Jaysen Gillespie, Head of Analytics & Data Science at RTB House, “[In 2026] attribution will still serve as a day-to-day operational measurement tool, but incrementality will also drive longer-term strategic decisions on which channels and tactics truly perform. We see most major platforms continuing to respond to the need to show both attributed and incremental sales. Whether ads are bought via the open internet, social platforms, retail media networks, traditional search or affiliate deals, vendors who can’t prove incrementality will be de-prioritised.”
More of the same: AI search
Within this evolution and consolidation around advocacy, influence and the measurement of how that impacts sales incrementally, there are of course others factors not least the topic du jour for 2025: AI.
AI has revolutionised how data is mined, processed and deployed, but it has had an even more notable impact on how consumers find what they are looking for.
AI search and discovery is now a very real part of the shopping process and marketers and retailers are having to rapidly adapt to how that impacts retail media networks and ad spending – a trend that will remain in 2026.
According to Luke Fenney, SVP, publishers an platforms – international, at LiveRamp “AI search is reshaping how people find content online and publishers heavily dependent on search referrals are already feeling the impact. The rapid growth of zero-click searches has driven referral traffic declines of up to 89%, shrinking audiences and available inventory, which in turn is putting significant pressure on advertising revenue.”
He continues: “The publishers best positioned to withstand this shift are those investing in deeper user engagement through an authenticated audience strategy. By establishing a clear value exchange with their users, they build a more durable audience footprint rather than relying on transient, “fly-by” traffic. And when these audiences are made addressable, they can be matched with advertisers’ first-party data, elevating both the advertising experience and its effectiveness.”
RTB House’s Gillespie agrees: “Marketers will continue to wave goodbye to the traditional search buy, as branded search proves less effective at driving new sales and AI-powered tools change how audiences are reached. As pure search audiences shrink, marketers will be pushed towards more adaptive, intelligence-driven strategies that prioritise and deliver real growth.”
The same but different
From a retail media perspective, 2026 is set to offer very much more of the same only different – or perhaps ‘more so’. The foundations that have been rapidly laid across 2024 and in particular 2025 have seen retail media become a new revenue stream for many retailers, but also a tool that ties retailers, consumers and advertising more closely together in the AI age.
This is important as AI across the value chain – from consumer use to creative and data analytics use – has totally reframed the advertising industry and suddenly verified, real consumer data is key to not only creating and displaying the right ads at the right moment, but also delivering trustworthy messaging to consumers.
According to Herdify’s Ridges: “AI adoption is booming, but the real wins come from focus and precision. Treat AI like a muscle, not a brain: give it clear jobs, like spotting high-potential postcodes or testing budget splits, instead of letting it roam free. The projects that really make a difference are the ones that are tightly scoped and well-governed.
“Looking ahead to 2026, the opportunity is in bringing these pieces together: mapped communities, trust-driven influence, and disciplined AI. Brands that plan around real-world conversations, not just digital signals, will see adoption spread faster, campaigns perform smarter, and loyalty grow stronger. The next wave isn’t just digital, it’s human, local, and amplified.”
