Further research from Berg Insight suggests that there were NFC mobile wallet services commercially live in 13 countries worldwide at the end of Q1-2013, up from just 6 countries at the end of 2011. However, these services are still available to a very small number of consumers.
“With the exception of a few projects in Asia-Pacific, there are only three NFC mobile wallet services in the world that have an effective addressable market of more than 100,000 people. These three services are Google Wallet and Isis in the US and Turkcell Wallet in Turkey”, explains Lars Kurkinen, telecom analyst, Berg Insight. However, this will change substantially during the next few years due to the massive rollouts of NFC-enabled phones, NFC-ready POS terminals and TSM solutions.
The market for NFC-enabled mobile phones reached a breakthrough in late 2011 and accelerated further in 2012 as new NFC handsets were introduced by all leading handset vendors except Apple. Berg Insight estimates that total NFC handset sales grew 300 percent to 140 million units worldwide in 2012. The global installed base of NFC-enabled handsets reached 170 million units in 2012, which corresponds to approximately 3.3 percent of all mobile handsets in use. Between 2012 and 2017, the installed base of NFC-enabled handsets is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 65 percent to reach 2.1 billion units at the end of the forecast period. The penetration rate for NFC across all handset segments will similarly increase to approximately 32 percent by 2017.
Global shipments of NFC-ready POS terminals doubled to an estimated 3.9 million units in 2012. Major vendors such as VeriFone and Ingenico are already now including NFC as a standard feature in almost all new products. Berg Insight forecasts that the global installed base of NFC-ready POS terminals will grow at a CAGR of 46.1 percent from 6.7 million units in 2012 to 44.6 million units by 2017. The penetration rate of NFC-ready POS terminals is projected to be an estimated 87 percent in EU27+2 by the end of 2017. The penetration rate in North America and Latin America will be 82 percent and 68 percent in the same year respectively, whereas penetration in the Rest of World will reach 39 percent.
TSM solutions, which are among other things needed for securely issuing payment credentials over-the-air to NFC-enabled phones, are being taken into use at an unprecedented pace by mobile network operators, banks and other companies. At the end of 2013 there will be around 140 companies that use a TSM solution in commercially live NFC mobile wallet services worldwide, up from only 57 at the end of 2012. The most active region for TSM projects is currently Asia-Pacific, followed by Europe, North America and the Middle East.
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