The latest ONS figures show that retail sales volumes increased by 1.2% in May 2026, following a 1.3% fall in April. With the global economic and political situation continuing to weigh on consumer confidence, many retailers and ecommerce experts see this as a positive result – albeit a fragile one.
Justin Parr, chief credit officer at trade finance provider Treyd, described it as “encouraging to see more positive sales data.” However, he cautioned that the uplift was largely driven by the May heatwave and the build-up to the World Cup. “UK retailers can’t always rely on temporary boosts from seasonal events and hot weather when structural challenges in the form of weak consumer confidence, elevated interest rates and high inflation are so deeply entrenched in the economy,” he said. “Consumers are now so cautious that even previously strong micro-categories – products like matcha or premium spirits – are far less buoyant.”
Stuart Greenfield, UK and European sales director at retail logistics company Advanced Supply Chain, echoed this caution: “We are hearing from retailers that June sales have started slowly, following a change in the weather, and they’ve seen a rise in shopper returns following May’s spike. The May uplift in sales remains welcome news for retailers but shows how much volatility there is in retail and the ongoing challenge of accurately forecasting demand.”
Mini-sales-peaks drive momentum
Greenfield added that “mini-sales-peaks” driven by sporting events, festivals and hot weather are likely to shape trading patterns over the summer. “These external factors can increase the risk of stock imbalances, and the winners will be those retailers that can reactively replenish inventory. Retail supply chain success increasingly relies on elasticity, speed and data-driven visibility,” he said.
Deann Evans, managing director, EMEA, at Shopify, agreed: “To position themselves for sustained growth, retailers must align their products with consumer demand and cultural momentum, all while delivering the fundamentals of great value, timely promotions and seamless customer service. The key is meeting customers wherever they’re spending, with inventory, payments and customer data connected so the buying experience is seamless across every channel.”
Deeper structural shift
Hai-Ly Nguyen, associate partner at McKinsey & Company, pointed to a deeper structural shift underpinning the data. “Department stores and online drove the lift,” she said. “For non-store retailers they saw a 6.1% monthly rise, the largest since February 2025, taking online share to 28.8%. That channel shift is being reinforced by a structural one: our European research shows 38% of consumers now use AI to decide what to buy, with 63% to compare brands, prices and reviews.”
She added: “For retailers looking to capture share of wallet, they need to prepare for future swings. Weather-driven surges like May’s will increasingly play out. The winners will be those that prepare in advance and stay visible in AI-purchasing journeys.”
While a sunny May delivered a welcome lift and a retail rebound, demand is still proving fickle and easily disrupted. Going forward, retail’s real test will be consistency, not spikes.
Stay informed
Our editor carefully curates two newsletters a week filled with up-to-date news, analysis and research, click here to subscribe to the FREE newsletter sent straight to your inbox and why not follow us on LinkedIn to receive the latest updates on our research and analysis.
