UK retail sales volumes fell by 1.1% in October 2025, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks the first monthly decline since May and ends a four-month run of growth.
Despite the dip, sales over the three months to October were up 1.1%. ONS chief economist GrantFitzner explained that this was driven by strong performance in clothing and tech earlier in the quarter. “Tech stores did well, with strong trading from new product launches continuing into October,” he said. “However, in October alone monthly sales fell back for the first time since May. Supermarkets, clothing stores and online retailers all saw slower sales, with feedback from some retailers that consumers were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals.”
The decline comes at the start of the Golden Quarter, traditionally the most lucrative period for retailers. While, as Fitzner said, some of the slowdown can be attributed to cost-conscious shoppers holding out for Black Friday bargains, Sagar Shah, an associate partner at McKinsey & Company, noted that ongoing food inflation has also cooled sales. “Notably, food stores saw a 1.1% decline. Here, food inflation continued to rise and keep the weekly shop expensive,” he said. “Clothing and footwear also cooled sales, likely due to the milder weather delaying winter wardrobe purchases.”
Positive signs ahead
Despite the overall slowdown, some categories saw strong growth. Data from Shopify shows that sales of ski and snowboard goggles rose by 131%. “Home cooking also featured in shoppers’ baskets, with slow cookers up 52% on the month prior, while winter wardrobe sales grew too, with cardigans up almost 21% month-on-month,” said Deann Evans, managing director EMEA at Shopify. “And, as the nights get longer, consumers are looking at indoor activities, with art and crafting tools up 15%.”
Evans highlighted positive signs ahead. “Insights from our 2025 Holiday Retail Report show that British shoppers plan to spend £181 over Black Friday Cyber Monday next weekend, an increase from £159 in 2024,” she said – although adding that this comes with a caveat. “Despite the higher intent to spend, 63% of consumers are setting a clear spending cap this holiday season.”
Retailers face loyalty challenges
The slowdown underscores broader challenges in consumer behaviour, with households tightening their belts and retailers competing for a smaller pot accordingly. With cost at the top of consumers’ minds, many are prioritising saving money over brand loyalty. “October’s decline in retail sales underscores how shifting consumer behaviours and tighter household budgets are reshaping spending, especially with the UK Autumn Budget on the horizon,” said Leigh Thomas, vice president EMEA at Intuit. “Intuit Mailchimp recently found 40% of UK business leaders are struggling to retain loyal customers in a competitive landscape, and over a third (37%) are struggling to capture attention and convert the first sale.”
Thomas stressed that November is a critical window for retailers to influence behaviour. “Rather than relying on repetitive, one-size-fits-all campaigns, retailers can create greater impact through tailored messaging – personalised recommendations, timely transactional messages, and an integrated approach across channels and customer touchpoints,” she said.
Shah, too, emphasised that Black Friday could be a vital touchpoint for retailers hoping to boost sluggish sales. “Retailers still have an opportunity to capture more of the winter spend with personalised and timely Black Friday deals,” he said. “Brands looking to tackle ad fatigue are turning to non-classical formats to grab consumer attention, according to our European State of Marketing research. CMOs are planning to expand the immersive experiences they offer, publish anti-advertising formats, and offer shoppable content to drive sales.”
With Black Friday looming and consumers setting strict budgets, October’s dip may be less a sign of weakness and more a pause before the storm. Retailers that combine sharp pricing with personalised experiences now have the best chance to capture spend and build momentum as the festive season accelerates.
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