GUEST COMMENT Retail media’s ‘TV upfronts’ moment is here — will rigid JBPs hold it back?

Retail media is in danger of slipping into the territory of TV Upfronts – where advertisers pre-bought ad slots with no real view as to where and when they may appear. But as tough economic times see advertisers demanding more control and measurement over retail media, a day of reckoning approaches, says David Simon

Ten years ago, I attended my first TV upfronts – the industry’s annual advance booking period – where more than 80% of total advertising budgets were allocated. Advertisers lined up to commit massive dollars a year in advance, accepting whatever inventory and pricing broadcasters offered. 

It seemed unshakeable until it wasn’t. 

Last year, for the first time in history, upfronts captured less than 50% of TV spend. Advertisers finally had enough of rigid, inflexible commitments that couldn’t adapt to changing business realities, and eventually, they took their budgets elsewhere.

The result? Broadcasters fundamentally rewrote the rules about what is included in the upfront and how the dollars are transacted, increasing flexibility with a more dedicated focus on hitting advertiser goals. Optionality and flexibility are the new name of the game.

Retail media is heading for its own ‘upfronts’ moment and the warning signs are already flashing. Recent research reveals that while nearly two-thirds of marketers increased retail media investments in 2024, they’re growing frustrated with “lackluster performance and measurement concerns”. Meanwhile, heading into Cannes Lions 2025, Adweek reported that retail media “faces a reckoning” as advertisers demand better tools and measurement amid economic uncertainty.

The culprit is the same inflexibility that nearly killed TV upfronts: joint business plans (JBPs) that lock brands into year-long commitments with little room to pivot when market conditions change and with little connection to achieving advertiser sales goals.

I’ve spent the last eight weeks talking to brands across every retail category, from major commerce teams to challenger brands trying to break into major retailers. What they’re telling me is simple; the legacy business practices designed to get products on shelves are fundamentally mismatched with how modern media buying actually works. 

Unless retailers evolve beyond these rigid models, they risk watching committed retail media spend follow the same downward trajectory that devastated traditional TV.

The limits of JBPs in today’s market

JBPs have been the backbone of retailer-brand relationships for decades. These annual agreements commit brands to specific dollar amounts in exchange for shelf space, end caps and promotional support. For a major beverage brand, that might mean a $50 million commitment to a grocery chain covering everything from in-store displays to trade promotions.

This model made perfect sense when retailers controlled finite physical real estate and brands had few alternatives. But today’s retail media landscape looks nothing like that world. Retailers now offer on-site advertising, off-site programmatic inventory, in-store audio and visual displays, and data-driven audience targeting across multiple touchpoints – yet they’re still using the same inflexible business model designed for simple shelf placement.

The mismatch is glaring. Modern media buyers expect real-time optimisation, programmatic access and the ability to shift budgets based on performance data. They’re accustomed to platforms where they can pause underperforming campaigns and reallocate spend within hours, not months. Yet, JBPs with retailers lock them into rigid annual commitments that treat a $3 million programmatic ad buy the same way they’d treat a pallet placement in 1995.

The result mirrors what happened to TV upfronts. When buyers can’t get the flexibility they need from committed spend, they start holding back larger portions of their budgets and turning instead to more agile channels. Without fundamental changes to how retail media packages and sells its inventory, we’re looking at the same erosion of committed dollars that transformed television buying.

What modern advertisers expect

Advertisers have moved from annual planning cycles to quarterly sprints, from set-and-forget campaigns to real-time optimisation. They expect to see performance data within days, not months, and they want the ability to reallocate budgets based on what’s actually working. In other words, if retailers want to offer advertising, they need to act more like the nimble, flexible, digital-native advertising platforms that brands have grown used to. 

This extends to programmatic buying, where brands can adjust targeting and spend allocation in real time. Even in retail contexts, buyers increasingly demand programmatic access rather than manual insertion orders that take weeks to execute and modify. They want plausible measurement that connects media exposure to business outcomes.

The power dynamic has also shifted. Brands are no longer afraid to challenge retailers who can’t deliver flexibility and transparency. Major CPG advertisers are making it clear that they’ll prioritize partners who offer the same reallocation capabilities they expect from other media channels.

This selectivity means retailers can no longer rely on fear-based selling. Brands are gravitating toward retail media networks that offer genuine media capabilities: programmatic access, performance transparency and operational flexibility to pivot when market conditions change.

A framework for flexibility

The solution isn’t to abandon committed spend entirely but to redesign how those commitments work. Retailers need to provide the optionality that modern advertisers expect while maintaining predictable revenue streams. Here’s how:

• Focus on the advertiser’s objectives: Anchor every conversation with your advertisers around what KPIs matter most to them. For challenger brands, sales are important, but share of voice or new households to purchase can be just as important. If an established brand is looking to change its perception in the market, the solutions sold should map to that. Too often, we see RMNs offering products that fit the advertiser’s objectives in other media environments but don’t fit what the advertiser expects from their retail partners. Put the brand back at the center of the conversation.
• Offer tiered investment models. Let brands choose their commitment level and tactics. Instead of locking them into specific placements, offer packages focused on different goals: brand awareness, new customer acquisition, or direct sales. Brands should be able to commit to a dollar amount but pivot between tactics as needed.
• Enable mid-year budget shifts. When campaigns underperform or business priorities change, let brands reallocate their committed spend to different products or tactics without starting over. Preserve the total investment while allowing tactical flexibility.
• Leverage existing infrastructure. Most retailers already have the technology to support flexible spending through their existing inventory and forecasting systems. The real barrier is organizational. Retail media teams need to operate more like publishers and less like traditional merchandising departments.

Think, too, about the practical applications. When a retailer’s AI system detects declining foot traffic in electronics, it could automatically suggest reallocating audio ad spend to higher-traffic areas like grocery or pharmacy. Similarly, if a brand’s new product launch exceeds projections, the same system can recommend increasing in-store promotional support by shifting dollars from slower-moving SKUs to the hot new product. 

This level of responsiveness should not be difficult for retailers to do. It simply requires breaking down traditional departmental silos and empowering retail media teams to make optimisation decisions in real time rather than waiting for quarterly reviews.

The good news is that retailers have everything they need to win this transition. They possess unmatched on-the-ground shopper data, sophisticated inventory management systems and direct relationships with consumers at the point of purchase, advantages that traditional media companies could never replicate. The challenge isn’t building new capabilities; it’s unlocking the flexibility that brands increasingly demand. But the retailers who embrace this shift first will undoubtedly capture market share from competitors still locked in rigid models. 

Author

David Simon is EVP of Advertising for Mood Media and President of Vibenomics and In-Store Marketplace (ISM)