The traditional holiday peak season is losing its sharp edges, according to new data from European e-commerce fulfillment provider byrd. A six-year analysis of shipment volumes across Europe reveals a significant flattening of the November–December spike, with the relative uplift versus the rest of the year decreasing by 92 percentage points between 2018 and 2024.
This new data chimes with a broader shift across the retail sector, particularly in its attitude towards Q4. According to Forbes, nearly one in five UK shoppers now begin festive planning before July, prompting brands to start promotions earlier and extend them longer, instead of concentrating promotions around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
According to IMRG, 63% of retailers extended Black Friday campaigns in 2024, while 48% started earlier, increasing the average campaign length by six days. byrd’s own data shows that the share of BFCM orders relative to total Q4 volumes has dropped by 23% over the past four years.
Operationally strategic
This shift not only aligns with consumer behaviour but can also help significantly with logistics bottlenecks, as Petra Dobrocka, founder & chief commercial officer at byrd, explains: “Across our network, we’re seeing fewer extreme peaks and more predictable Q4 curves. That’s good news for brands and shoppers: steadier fulfillment, fewer bottlenecks, and a better post‑purchase experience.”
The flattening of peak season also helps retailers manage operational costs – something most UK retailers are looking to do as they face increasingly squeezed margins. As byrd point out, many carriers introduce peak surcharges during high-volume periods. For example, DHL Germany will apply a “Peak-in-Peak” surcharge from 24 November to 7 December 2025, in addition to an existing surcharge across November and December. Amazon’s FBA program also adds seasonal fees. These surcharges incentivise brands to shift order volumes outside of peak windows, further smoothing demand. Smoothing out order volumes also reduces the need for expensive last-minute staffing or warehousing.
byrd’s data doesn’t just reflect a logistics trend – it captures a broader strategic pivot in UK retail. Retailers are adapting to economic pressures, evolving consumer habits, and operational realities by flattening the peak. This approach is helping them protect margins, improve delivery performance, and offer a better customer experience during the most critical time of the year.
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