Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Spending Report predicts a record £26.9 billion in online spend for the Golden Quarter (1 November to 31 December 2025), marking the third successive year of positive year-on-year growth in online spending over the holiday period.
One of the most well-respected online holiday shopping forecasts, with rigorous data accumulated from hundreds of billions of visits to UK online retail sites and tracking 100 million SKUs in 18 product categories, Adobe’s latest forecast will be welcome news for online retailers – particularly in the light of recent gloomy predictions about continued consumer caution and the impact of the upcoming Autumn Budget.
Black Friday set to be biggest spending day of the year with £1.19 billion spent, up 6.6% YoY. Online spending during BFCM (black Friday Cyber Monday) is projected to grow 4.4% YoY to £3.8 billion, capturing 14.2% of the season’s total revenue. One significant difference from previous years is that Boxing Day is forecast to cross the half-a-billion-pound threshold with £510m expected to be spent (up 4.6% YoY).
Price sensitivity still an issue
The data shows strong price sensitivity from consumers, who will be planning their shopping around BFCM to get the deepest discounts, and who are increasingly looking to spread the cost of holiday spending. Buy Now Pay Later is gaining popularity, with 3.8 billion pounds expected to be processed through the holiday season (up 5.4% YoY), representing 14% of online spending. Shoppers are expected to spend £159.3 million through BNPL on Cyber Monday, the day when tech goods are expected to hit their deepest discounts – setting a new record for BNPL, up 4.2% on the previous record of £152.8 million set on Cyber Monday 2024.
Mobile remains the favoured device for online shopping, growing at 5.5% and making up more than half (56.7%) of all online spending – meaning that retailers who offer frictionless and impulse-driven mobile experiences are at a significant advantage.
Huge growth from GenAI platforms
A whopping 410% YoY growth in traffic from GenAI platforms is expected as consumers engage with ChatGPT and other agents for gift ideas – once again pointing to the need for retailers to optimise their sites for crawling by GenAI bots. Adobe analyst Vivek Pandya described the surge in Gen AI traffic as “the biggest story”.
Social media is also driving significant growth. Instagram is the fastest growing channel, surging 50%–52% YoY, followed by TikTok at 42-45% – highlighting the ever-growing role of influencers in driving growth for retailers, particularly in the Gen Z/Millenial space. YouTube’s share is also expected to rise 27%–29% YoY, compounding the strong gains throughout 2025. With a slightly older demographic, Facebook is expected to perform less strongly than in previous years.
Organic search is expected to decline slightly during the holiday season, with paid search receiving a 9-11% boost as retailers up their paid search spend.
Consumers trading up
In terms of trends, Adobe predicts that consumers who’ve traded down to buy lower-end goods during the year as the cost-of-living crisis has prevailed will trade up to more expensive goods during the holiday season. This trend has been observed across all categories from furniture and bedding to apparel to appliances, but Adobe expects consumers to treat themselves and family or friends to higher-value items over the holiday season – perhaps by taking advantage of discounts. The share of goods sold for the most expensive items is expected to increase by 15% in November and December compared to YTD averages (Jan-Sept). Personal care products, sporting goods and electronics are all expected to see significantly higher sales of premium items.
Adobe’s forecast paints a positive picture for UK ecommerce during the Golden Quarter, despite economic uncertainty. Indeed, the sector continues to defy expectations with ongoing growth despite economic challenges. With a record spend that will see mobile shopping surpassing 56% of online spend, GenAI traffic surging by over 400%, and social media driving double-digit growth, retailers that invest in frictionless mobile experiences, AI optimisation, and social-first strategies are set to win big this Golden Quarter. Add in the rise of BNPL and consumers trading up to premium products, and this holiday season looks set to deliver strong results for those ready to meet shoppers where they are – online, mobile, and increasingly AI-powered.
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