Retailers received a welcome boost this morning as the latest ONS figures showed a retail sales rebound in January. Retail sales volumes rose 1.8% in January 2026 following modest growth in December and a contraction in November. After a volatile end to 2025, January’s rebound provides some early-year encouragement — though the recovery remains fragile amid ongoing debates over minimum wage impacts, rising costs and uncertainty ahead of the Spring Budget.
January is historically a tough month, as consumers rein back spending after Christmas, but Shopify’s managing director for EMEA, Deann Evans, says retailers can take heart from the stronger-than-expected performance. “Retailers will be encouraged by the latest ONS sales figures,” she said. “This marks a positive start to the year – particularly as January is often a challenging period.”
Shoppers in “spring-preparation” mode
Shopify’s own data suggests consumers are already shifting into spring-preparation mode. “Compared to December 2025, sales of greenhouses rose by almost 200% in January – closely followed by outdoor sofas (182%), sunloungers (175%) and awnings (156%),” Evans said. With Mother’s Day and Easter approaching, she expects the trend to continue — but warns retailers must balance value and experience carefully to sustain momentum.
Despite January’s reputation for tightened household budgets, retailers worked hard to entice consumers back. Omnisend senior ecommerce expert Marty Bauer points to the success of January sales in regaining momentum, stating that the nature of early‑year spending is shifting: “The early part of the year is now driven less by impulse purchases and more by intentional buying. Discount-led events, loyalty offers, and personalised promotions will have played a crucial role in converting browsers into buyers,” he said.
Omnisend’s research indicates 44% of British consumers now wait for sales before shopping, with 21% only spending during major discount periods. Meanwhile, shoppers are gravitating toward practical categories such as fitness, home essentials and self‑improvement. Bauer added: “Make no mistake that these figures will be welcomed by retailers… but it doesn’t signal carefree spending.”
Intuit Mailchimp’s head of agency partnerships, Sarah Logan, agrees that changing consumer psychology is shaping early‑year spending patterns. “January’s ‘new year, new me’ mindset is likely contributing to the uplift…highlighting a shift toward self-focused spending at the start of the year,” she said. However, she cautions against chasing every seasonal marketing moment. “Ultimately the focus should be on meaningful engagement over constant activity.”
“Treatonomics” and operational precision
For payments and commerce platform Square, the message is one of cautious positivity. Fi Sellick, Head of UK Strategy, said: “January spending hasn’t slowed down… whether that’s ‘treatonomics’ or signs of stabilisation, it’s welcome news.” Online spending continues to rise strongly, but Sellick stresses the importance of control in an unpredictable landscape: “Having the right view of the business…will enable businesses to react to customer habits in real-time.”
Operational precision is also under scrutiny. Anna Klysik, Service Delivery Director at Balloon One, warns that even small errors can be costly in a low‑growth environment. “Retail is ticking upwards, but only gradually… retailers don’t have much room for error,” she said, emphasising that returns handling and supply‑chain visibility remain critical.
Beyond trading performance, cyber resilience is emerging as a key concern ahead of the Spring Statement. Michael Vallas, global technical principal at Goldilock Secure, notes: “Today’s rise in retail sales is a welcome sign of resilience… but that same resilience can evaporate overnight when a cyberattack strikes.” With consumer patience wearing thin, he argues that Government‑backed minimum resilience standards would offer vital protection for the sector.
Overall, January’s retail sales rebound provides some much‑needed breathing space — but retailers face a year where agility, data mastery and resilience could matter as much as demand itself.
Stay informed
Our editor carefully curates two newsletters a week filled with up-to-date news, analysis and research. Click here to subscribe to the FREE newsletter sent straight to your inbox. Why not follow us on LinkedIn to receive the latest updates on our research and analysis?
