The UK’s online retail sector defied endless rain and geopolitical instability to deliver a stable February, with shoppers spending £9.25 billion – up 3.3% year-on-year, according to Adobe Digital Insights data. And, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Vivek Pandya, chief analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, told InternetRetailing that he expects the sector to hold up.
UK online shoppers are cautious but they are still spending; that’s the narrative that has been quietly building since the turn of the year, and the latest data from Adobe Digital Insights supports it. According to Adobe, the sustained performance was fuelled by mobile shopping, social‑influenced discovery and an unexpectedly rapid uptake of generative AI in the shopping journey.
Talking to InternetRetailing, Adobe Digital Insights chief analyst Vivek Pandya said that the year began with more energy than many expected. “It’s been really interesting to look at how the trajectory has shaped up so far this year in terms of online spending,” he said. “We came into the year with some momentum. Consumers were thinking about what they bought over the holiday season, what they were returning and what they were getting back, but there was also a real desire to spend on supplements and fitness equipment to start the year off on the right footing.”
That enthusiasm levelled out but did not fall away. “When we got into February, momentum ticked down a little bit, but it remained relatively stable,” Pandya said. “You’ve got about £9.25 billion coming in for February, up 3.3% year on year. That’s pretty solid. Consumers are still being careful with how they spend, but there is effective spending across key categories.”
Prices fall, spending shifts — and categories benefit
One of the reasons February looked resilient is the continued year‑on‑year price decline across key categories. In apparel, sporting goods and electronics especially, lower prices are supporting volume and nudging shoppers towards higher‑quality items.
“In the UK you still have year‑on‑year price decreases across many categories, and that’s helping drive spending,” Pandya stated. And, with spring approaching, the timing is favourable: “The biggest years for UK online spending really take off once we move out of the early part of the year. The fact that we’re coming in on a relatively solid base bodes well for what we could expect a few months down the road.”
Resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty
Despite the war in the Middle East and wider geopolitical instability, Adobe isn’t seeing a dip in online consumer demand. Shoppers, Pandya says, are more influenced by factors they feel in their immediate online environment — particularly pricing and availability.
“That broader online environment and price experience is going to be a bigger driver than specific geopolitical events in isolation,” he explained. As long as competitive discounting persists, “we can expect these demand levels to hold, and then improve as we move toward the summer.”
The strength of the digital retail sector, even during turbulent economic times, is also supported by its relatively youthful core user base. Younger consumers’ blend of lifestyle aspirations, creator‑influenced discovery and daily social media engagement is steering spend into categories tied to health and wellbeing.
“You have a number of trends converging, including influencers promoting fitness‑focused lifestyles,” Pandya said. “They’re prioritising categories that support a healthy lifestyle.” This behaviour also lifts fashion and adjacent categories: “That social layer is a big part of why we’re seeing sustained interest, even as people spend more time at home.”
Events and the rise of ‘eventised buying’
As events like Easter and Mother’s Day appear on the horizon, spending typically ramps up — and with Valentine’s Day, February showed early signs of this behaviour.
“What we see historically around events is strong price sensitivity. As these events kick into high gear, they’re willing to amplify their spending,” Pandya said. Retailers, in turn, are increasingly spreading out promotional moments to build direct loyalty and reduce dependence on major sale days. “That’s pulling some sales momentum into these shorter sprint sales moments.”
The explosion of Generative AI
But for Pandya, one of February’s standout developments was the 201% year‑on‑year surge in traffic to retail sites from generative AI platforms. Around 30% of consumers now use GenAI to ideate purchases, compare prices or filter options.
“I’m still really impressed with what we’re seeing,” Pandya said. Unlike social media or mobile commerce, which both grew gradually, generative AI adoption has accelerated rapidly. Although early AI-driven shopping behaviour is more common on laptops and desktops, where consumers are comfortable conducting in-depth research, Pandya expects this to shift to mobile over time.
A solid base and tailwinds ahead
Despite the difficult weather, price‑sensitive consumers, and global uncertainties, the UK’s online retail market enters spring with firm underpinnings: falling prices, strong mobile usage, GenAI‑boosted research and consistent consumer intent.
Pandya expects these factors to support further growth in the coming months. “Online shopping is holding up pretty well,” he concluded. “When you think about the efficiency and ease – especially in bad weather – and the ability to get products straight to the front door, this is a very solid spending level for the UK. As we move into better weather and more event-driven moments, those factors should provide additional tailwinds for overall online growth.”
