New data from Salesforce is forecasting a whopping $1.25 trillion (£889 billion) in digital sales for the holiday season – but there’s a catch. Their data shows that retailers who aren’t already engaging with AI to optimise the sales experience risk missing out.
Salesforce crunched the numbers using data from 1.5 billion shoppers using Salesforce Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud, and Agentforce – platforms used by retailers across the globe. The data shows that global digital sales are expected to grow by a 4% YoY increase to $1.25 trillion – but up to 21% of orders ($263 billion) will be driven by AI and agents.
This shows a steady increase from the same period last year, for which Salesforce’s data shows that AI and agents led to 19% of sales, with buyers leaning into them for product recommendations and shopping support. It demonstrates that AI is fast becoming a trusted shopping ally, echoing data from Shopify and Constructor’s State of Ecommerce 2025 report, released last week, which found that nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents already use GenAI tools like ChatGPT in their daily lives, up from just 29% in 2023. 60% of consumers say they’re “definitely” or “probably” open to using GenAI on retail sites, and 38% of shoppers have already tried AI shopping assistant tools such as Amazon’s Rufus and Walmart’s Sparky – with over half finding them “always” or “often“ helpful.
Trust in AI is rising
Salesforce’s data indicates an even sharper uptick in use of AI and agents – online traffic volumes from AI grew 119% YoY in the first half of the year, with conversion rates from these channels over 700% higher than social media traffic and 200% higher than other traffic sources like traditional search and direct. Most importantly, trust in AI agents has surged, with 86% of users now trusting them, up from 46% in May. The State of Ecommerce 2025 report found that nearly one in five shoppers would trust an AI agent over their partner to choose a gift.
However, although sales volumes are expected to increase, in part as AI drives growth, overall there’s a dialled-down approach to this holiday season from consumers and retailers alike, with tariffs, rising costs and inflation all adding to consumer caution. Global consulting firm Alix Partners described the expected YoY growth of between 3 and 5% as “underwhelming” – their 2025 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook found that 80% of consumers say they plan to spend the same or less this year than last, with 35% anticipating a reduction in spending.
Record numbers of returns
Last year’s holiday season also saw a record number of returns – $122 billion in global holiday purchases, according to Salesforce, representing a 28% increase from the previous year. With returns growing as an issue that significantly eats into profit margins – as explored in our Returns 2025 Report – this, too, could be a pain point for retailers this year.
Certainly, the Salesforce data also found that shoppers are expected to be increasingly thrifty this year. $64 billion of holiday sales are expected to come from the resale market, with 46% of shoppers planning to save money by giving away unwanted items as gifts. 77% of consumers said they’d wait until Cyber Week to make any big ticket purchases. Retailers, too, are feeling the pinch, with an expected drop in the number of promotions available. The Salesforce data indicates that orders placed with a promotional code are expected to fall by 2%, with rising supply chain costs to blame for retailer caution.
What does seem clear is that AI and agents can help ease some of this pain, offering retailers an opportunity to tap AI to capture revenue share across the buying journey – as well as in customer support, another area in which AI increasingly excels. As the Salesforce website states: “The ability to optimise a site’s product listings, promotions, and messaging for emerging generative AI search experiences will be a crucial strategy for brands… Generative search is rapidly emerging as a new digital search channel for discovery, expanding the landscape that SEO has long defined.”
The 2025 holiday season may bring record-breaking sales, but it’s also shaping up to be one of the most complex in recent memory. With cautious consumers, rising return rates, and tighter margins, retailers are under pressure to make every interaction count – and those retailers who are already using AI and agents have an advantage over those who are not. It looks increasingly likely that AI is the key for driving growth, not just this holiday season, but beyond.
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