US online sales will grow 14.1%, to $143.7 billion over the 2019 peak season, while total retail spending – both online and offline – is expected to increase 4.0%.
So predicts Adobe, which believes that Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest – and fastest – growing online shopping day of the year with $9.4 billion in sales, an 18.9% increase year over year (YoY). Online sales between 7pm and 11pm. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday are expected to drive over $3bn in revenue, with sales conversions nearly doubling during these golden hours of online retail.
Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 19.5%, generating $4.4 billion. One out of five dollars this holiday season will be spent during Cyber Week between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating $29 billion or 20% of total online revenue this season. With just 22 days between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day, there are six fewer days of peak holiday shopping days than 2018, translating into almost $1 billion of potential revenue lost due to the abridged time period.
This compressed shopping calendar means that retailers will begin sales earlier than ever before, with each day in November and December surpassing $1 billion in online retail sales for the first time.
While online giants will see revenue increase by 65%, smaller retailers will only enjoy a 35% boost. Large retailers – annual online revenue of over $1bn – will be the clear winners on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with smaller retailers – less than $50m annual online revenue – failing to drive strong online traction despite the growing awareness of Small Business Saturday.
Additionally, large retailers will benefit from higher conversion rates, with customers visiting their sites 32% more likely to convert versus smaller retailers (23%).
US shoppers will spend $14 billion more on their smartphones compared to last year – accounting for 36% of all online sales – accounting for 57% of all visits, Adobe is predicting.
“The compressed shopping cycle will see retailers launching offers far earlier than ever before,” says John Copeland, head of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. “With fewer days to spend, Adobe Analytics predicts that BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) will be more popular than ever before, with revenue from this delivery method doubling in the week before Christmas as shoppers rush to complete their gift lists.”
The most anticipated gifts include game consoles such as Nintendo Switch Lite and SEGA Genesis Mini, as well as toys like Owleez, Blume Dolls, Candy Locks, Kindi Kids, and LOL Surprise OMG Swag. Top selling video games are expected to include Pokémon Shield/Sword, Shenmue 3, Jedi Fallen Order, Death Stranding and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.