Retailers and brands may be missing out on sales by concentrating holiday advertising around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as consumers increasingly begin their festive shopping weeks earlier.
Almost half (46%) of shoppers start their holiday purchases before November, according to research by marketing platform Attentive, while Adobe forecasts that Cyber Week will account for just 17.3% of the $275.1bn shoppers are expected to spend online during November and December.
Missed Halloween opportunity
The trend mirrors changing behaviour seen around Halloween – an increasingly lucrative event in the retail calendar, with research by retail and shopper marketing agency Savvy estimating that Halloween 2025 added to £705 million to retail coffers. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, nearly half of consumers planned their Halloween shopping in September or earlier this year. A decade ago, just 34% started shopping before October.
For retailers, the shift raises questions about how media budgets are allocated across the holiday season.
“Many brands spend most of their ad budget in the last weeks of a holiday,” says Donatas Smailys, co-founder and chief executive of creator advertising platform Billo. “Halloween showed what that costs: by late October, a lot of shoppers have already bought their costumes.
“The holidays give brands a second shot, and the ones that roll out their ads in stages will catch shoppers while they’re still deciding what to buy.”
Adobe forecasts online spending will reach $95.8bn in October alone, up 8% year-on-year, suggesting many consumers are already in buying mode before the traditional Black Friday push begins.
Meanwhile, social commerce continues to grow. Adobe expects social media’s share of holiday online revenue to increase by 17%, compared with 4% growth for paid search.
A more effective ad campaign calendar
Smailys argues retailers should adapt creative and media strategies as consumer priorities evolve through the season. Early November campaigns should focus on product discovery and gift inspiration, while Black Friday and Cyber Monday messaging should emphasise deals and promotions. In December, delivery guarantees and click-and-collect availability become increasingly important as shoppers race to secure gifts before Christmas.
For marketing and retail media teams, the research highlights the importance of reaching shoppers at the point of decision rather than simply increasing spend during peak promotional periods. As holiday shopping windows continue to stretch, advertisers that engage consumers earlier can ensure they stand out and grab attention before the Black Friday marketing messages reach saturation point.
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